Structured Decisions

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Structured Decision Making,
Risk Analysis Expert Systems,
Expert Paneling, & Expert Elicitation
in Ecology

Bruce G. Marcot
updated 05 July 2024
Also see:
Bayesian Network Models in Ecology


Publications listed from most recent to least recent:


Marcot, B. G., K. M. Thorne, J. A. Carr, and G. G. Guntenspergen. 2023. Foundations of modeling resilience to sea-level rise of tidal saline wetlands along the U.S. Pacific Coast. Landscape Ecology 38:3061-3080. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-023-01762-3.

D'Elia, J., N. Schumaker, B. G. Marcot, T. Miewald, S. Watkins, and A. D. Yanahan. 2022. Condors in space: an individual-based population model for California condor reintroduction planning. Landscape Ecology 37:1431-1452. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-022-01410-2

Meurisse, N., B. G. Marcot, O. Woodberry, B. Barratt, and J. Todd. 2022. Risk analysis frameworks used in biological control and introduction of a novel Bayesian network tool. Risk Analysis 42(6):1255-1276. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13812.

Marcot, B. G., J. E. Lyons, D. C. Elbert, and L. Todd. 2021. Using decision science for monitoring threatened western snowy plovers to inform recovery. Animals 11(2):569; https://doi.org/10.3390/ani11020569. [PDF] [Supplemental Material zip file]

Marcot, B. G. 2021. The science and management of uncertainty: dealing with doubt in natural resource management. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL. 277 pp.
https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9780429299575

Martin, C. D., S. D. Jewell, M. H. Hoff, C. E. Givens, and B. G. Marcot. 2020. Comparing invasive species risk screening tools FISRAM, ERSS, FISK, and AS-ISK, as a response to Hill et al. (2020). Management of Biological Invasions 11(2):342-355. [PDF]

Marcot, B. G., D. B. Lesmeister, T. Wilson, E. Volkman, and P. Anderson. 2020. Applying principles and methods of risk analysis: a case example of Northern Spotted Owl research in a dynamic pandemic landscape. Research Paper PNW-RP-617. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. Portland OR. 30 pp. [Available here ]

Marcot, B. G. 2019. Chapter 16. Causal modeling and the role of expert knowledge. Pp. 298-309 in: L. A. Brennan, A. N. Tri, and B. G. Marcot, editors. Quantitative analyses in wildlife science. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD. PDF

Marcot, B. G., M. P. Thompson, T. W. Bonnot, and F. R. Thompson. 2016. Uncertainty is information, too. The Wildlife Professional 10(1):30-33. PDF (0.2MB) [Also available from: http://wildlife.org/uncertainty-is-information-too-how-accounting-for-doubt-helps-inform-decision-making/]

Marcot, B. G., and D. C. Elbert. 2015. Assessing management of raptor predation for Western Snowy Plover recovery. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-910. USDA Forest Service Portland, Oregon. 67 pp. PDF (2.7MB)
     Presents methods and results of an expert panel. Media release.

Marcot, B. G., L. A. Fisher, M. P. Thompson, and M. Tomosy. 2015. Applying the science of decision making: A survey of use and needs in the National Forest System. A USDA Forest Service Joint Internal Report from the National Forest System Ecosystem Management Coordination Program and the Research and Development Mission Area. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 27 pp. PDF (1MB) [Also available from: http://www.fs.fed.us/emc/nepa/includes/FS_SurveyofDecisionScience2015.pdf]

Thompson, M. P., B. G. Marcot, F. R. Thompson, S. McNulty, L. A. Fisher, M. C. Runge, D. Cleaves, and M. Tomosy. 2013. The science of decision making: Applications for sustainable forest and grassland management in the National Forest System. General Technical Report WO-88. USDA Forest Service. Washington, D.C. 54 pp. PDF (3.1MB)
        Guidance for tough choices. Some practical ways to deal with complex decisions.
        This is Appendix A (written by Bruce G. Marcot and Matthew P. Thompson) from the above publication.

Marcot, B. G., M. P. Thompson, M. C. Runge, F. R. Thompson, S. McNulty, D. Cleaves, M. Tomosy, L. Fisher, and A. Bliss. 2012. Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests. Forest Ecology and Management 285:123-132. PDF (540KB), Supplementary appendix PDF (117KB)

Marcot, B. G. 2012. Introduction to structured decision-making. Presented 30 April 2012 at: Alaska Science and Decision-Making Workshop. Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C. PDF (0.3MB)

Marcot, B. G., C. Allen, S. Morey, D. Shively, and R. White. 2012. An expert panel approach to assessing potential effects of bull trout reintroduction on federally listed salmonids in the Clackamas River, Oregon. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 32(3):450-465. PDF (1.1MB)

Marcot, B. G., S. Morey, B. Naney, and L. Finley. 2012. Fisher threats workshop report. Appendix 1 (pp. 47-55) in: Naney, R. H., L. L. Finley, E. C. Lofroth, P. J. Happe, A. L. Krause, C. M. Raley, R. L. Truex, L. J. Hale, J. M. Higley, A. D. Kosic, J. C. Lewis, S. A. Livingston, D. C. Macfarlane, A. M. Myers, and J. S. Yaeger. Conservation of fishers (Martes pennanti) in south-central British Columbia, western Washington, western Oregon, and California. Volume III: Threat assessment. USDI Bureau of Land Management, Denver, Colorado. 55 pp. PDF (0.6MB)

Marcot, B. G. 2007. The quandaries and promise of risk management: A scientist's perspective on integration of science and management. The George Wright Forum (The George Wright Society Journal of Parks, Protected Areas & Cultural Sites) 24(2):30-35. PDF (120KB)

Marcot, B. G. 2006. Characterizing species at risk I: modeling rare species under the Northwest Forest Plan. Ecology and Society 11(2):10. [online] http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art10/ ... or article PDF (701KB) and appendix PDF (21KB)

Marcot, B. G. 1991. Diagnosing stand treatment needs by expert system in the USDA Forest Service. Natural Resources Computer Newsletter 6(3):4-5.

Marcot, B. G. 1991. Representing uncertainty in expert systems: II. Assumptions and limitations of the likelihood approach. Natural Resources Computer Newsletter 6(1):8-10.

Marcot, B. G. 1990. Combining expert systems with geobased information systems. Natural Resources Computer Newsletter 5(2):4-5.

Marcot, B. G. 1990. Expert systems and GIS meet in USGS model. Natural Resources Computer Newsletter 5(1):7.

Marcot, B. G. 1990. Representing uncertainty in expert systems: I. Use of likelihood estimates in knowledge base rules. Natural Resources Computer Newsletter 5(9):10-14.

Marcot, B. G. 1990. Testing your knowledge base. (Reprinted from: AI Expert August 1987, pp. 42- 47). Pp. 438-443 in: P. G. Raeth, ed. Expert systems a software methodology for modern applications. IEEE Computer Society Press, Los Alamitos, CA. 460 pp. PDF (1MB)

Marcot, B. G. 1989. Silviculture expert system prototypes. Natural Resources Computer Newsletter 4(3):3.

Marcot, B. G. 1988. 1st-Class Expert Systems: 1st-Class. AI Expert 3:77-80.

Marcot, B. G. 1988. Expert systems for deer habitat planning. Natural Resources Computer Newsletter 3(4):7-8.

Marcot, B. G. 1988. Expert systems in wildlife management -- USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region. Natural Resources Computer Newsletter 3(5):4-5.

Rader, C. D., V. M. Crowe, and B. G. Marcot. 1987. CAPS: a pattern recognition expert system prototype for respiratory and anesthesia monitoring. Presented at Westex-87 IEEE Expert Systems Conference, June 1987, Anaheim, California.

Marcot, B. G. 1986. Concepts of risk analysis as applied to viable population assessment and planning. in: B. A. Wilcox, P. F. Brussard, and B. G. Marcot, eds. The management of viable populations: theory, applications, and case studies. Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford, CA. PDF (0.4MB)

Marcot, B. G. 1986. Use of expert systems in wildlife-habitat modeling. Pp. 145-150 in: J. Verner, M. L. Morrison, and C. J. Ralph, eds. Wildlife 2000: modeling habitat relationships of terrestrial vertebrates. Univ. of Wisconsin Press, Madison, WI. 470 pp. PDF (1MB)

Marcot-Crowe, V., C. Rader, R. Hufnagel, and B. Marcot. 1986. Pattern recognition and expert system analysis of the capnogram. Perkin-Elmer Technical Symposium Proceedings. Perkin-Elmer Corp., California.



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